Steelers Today – A Pittsburgh Steelers blog

Steelers Today has hooked up with 31 other NFL bloggers from around the country to do a bloggers’ mock draft. All 32 NFL teams are represented in the mock draft.

The mock draft is sponsored by Cleveland Browns blog No Logo Needed. For more details on the bloggers’ mock draft, click here.

With the 23rd pick of the 2009 NFL Draft the New England Patriots blog Patriots Daily selects……

Yeah, I know. The Patriots don’t need a running back at the moment, not with a full rotation in place for 2009. Not with Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Laurence Maroney tied up through 2010. Not with other needs – in the secondary or the front seven, for example – that will more immediately impact their ability to compete this fall.

I don’t care. Moreno is, by most measurements, a top 15 player in this draft. I’m supposed to ignore that? Did I mention that this draft couldn’t have gone any worse for me?

The strange thing is that this could end up working. Kevin Faulk, the Pats utility knife who is about to turn 33, is entering the final year of his contract. Maroney is teetering on the edge of full-on bust status after a disappointing 2008 season that was marred by injury and ineffectiveness. As great as he’s been in New England, Morris is 32, and if the Pats advance deep into next year’s playoffs, they’ll probably have cake in the break room one afternoon to celebrate Taylor’s 34th birthday.  

Best of all, by all accounts, Moreno is a well rounded, consistently productive player. He’s not a burner, but a quick, elusive and tough runner who is well suited to be a focal point, yet does the little things (like blitz pickup) right. He’s a smooth receiver who can get down the field from the backfield, or split wide. He’s got the right classroom and weight room make-up. He’s probably the most Patriot-like running back in the draft. 

So despite the fact that I’ll get killed for this, he’s my pick. The Atlanta Falcons are now on the clock. Hopefully, I’ll find out later that they wanted Moreno. Because after all, misery loves company

The draft results so far are shown below. Click on the individual pick to read each blogger’s rationale for his selection.

1. Detroit Lions: Mathew Stafford, QB (Georgia)
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT (Virginia)
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB (Wake Forest)
4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR (Texas Tech)
5. Cleveland Browns: Rey Maualuga, LB (Southern California)
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Smith, OT (Baylor)
7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR (Missouri)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT (Boston College)
9. Green Bay Packers, Brian Orakpo, DE (Texas)
10. San Francisco 49ers, Everette Brown, OLB (Florida State)
11. Buffalo Bills, Clay Matthews, OLB (Southern California)
12. Denver Broncos, Malcolm Jenkins, CB (Ohio State)
13. Washington Redskins, Andre Smith, OT (Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints, Brian Cushing, OLB (Southern California)
15. Houston Texans, Michael Oher, OT (Ole Miss)
16. San Diego Chargers, Eben Britton, OT (Arizona)
17. New York Jets, Tyson Jackson, DE (LSU)
18. Chicago Bears, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (Maryland)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Percy Harvin, WR  (Florida)
20. Detroit Lions, Aaron Maybin, DE (Penn State)
21. Philadelphia Eagles, Vontae Davis, CB (Illinois)
22. Minnesota Vikings, Mark Sanchez, QB (Southern California)
23. New England Patriots, Knowshon Moreno, RB (Georgia)

The Atlanta Falcons are on the clock.

(If you enjoyed this article, please consider leaving a comment below. Also, please subscribe to our blog by pressing the orange button below. Thanks.)

Subscribe in a reader

Steelers Today has hooked up with 31 other NFL bloggers from around the country to do a bloggers’ mock draft. All 32 NFL teams are represented in the mock draft.

The mock draft is sponsored by Cleveland Browns blog No Logo Needed. For more details on the bloggers’ mock draft, click here.

With the 22nd pick of the 2009 NFL Draft the Minnesota Vikings blog The Ragnarok selects…

Going into this mock draft, I expected to have to justify why I chose not to draft Josh Freeman, who is generally considered the third best quarterback available.  By my count, there were about 9 teams that could reasonably take Mark Sanchez due to the age of their “franchise” QB or due to their lack of a franchise QB (Detroit, St. Louis, Seattle, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Denver, New York Jets, Chicago, Tampa Bay) before the Vikings picked.  Instead, it looks like I’m going to have to decide whether Mark Sanchez is the answer to the Vikings’ long standing quarterback issue (or is he juicy enough to tempt the Broncos to trade Jay Cutler for him) or whether the Vikings should address their needs at cornerback or offensive line.  And after thinking back to the last two years, the answer is clear—if Mark Sanchez is available, the Vikings should draft him.

First off, it’s quite clear that the Vikings need a real franchise quarterback.  Tarvaris Jackson is never going to be that good and Sage Rosenfels is already 31 years old.  Secondly, I believe that Mark Sanchez is the best quarterback available in the draft because he’s got enough arm strength for the pros, he’s more accurate than Matt Stafford and he’s shown the ability to read coverages that Freeman never had to in Kansas State’s spread offense.

Sanchez has the arm strength and the accuracy to succeed in the NFL and he has the background in a Pro-Style offense that will allow him to quickly adapt to the pros.  He completed 64.27% of his passes in his 16 games at USC, more than any other first round quarterback.  He can throw the ball deep accurately (forcing defenses to only put eight in the box to stop Adrian Peterson) and he has the touch needed for the short throws as well, a necessity in Brad Childress’ West Coast Offense.  Also, Sanchez has all the intangibles you’d want in your quarterback, which he showed by getting elected captain last year and when he stuck it out at USC despite getting beat out by John David Booty for the starting position in 2006.

I know there are some doubts about Sanchez due to his lack of starting experience, the talent surrounding him, his height and the fact he was somewhat turnover prone, throwing ten interceptions and fumbling seven times.  The doubts are enough for me to hope that he’s taken before the Vikings’ pick, but they aren’t enough to let me pass on him for another player (especially with 5 offensive tackles already off the board).  So the Vikings’ finally have their franchise quarterback.  Hopefully.

The draft results so far are shown below. Click on the individual pick to read each blogger’s rationale for his selection.

1. Detroit Lions: Mathew Stafford, QB (Georgia)
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT (Virginia)
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB (Wake Forest)
4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR (Texas Tech)
5. Cleveland Browns: Rey Maualuga, LB (Southern California)
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Smith, OT (Baylor)
7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR (Missouri)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT (Boston College)
9. Green Bay Packers, Brian Orakpo, DE (Texas)
10. San Francisco 49ers, Everette Brown, OLB (Florida State)
11. Buffalo Bills, Clay Matthews, OLB (Southern California)
12. Denver Broncos, Malcolm Jenkins, CB (Ohio State)
13. Washington Redskins, Andre Smith, OT (Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints, Brian Cushing, OLB (Southern California)
15. Houston Texans, Michael Oher, OT (Ole Miss)
16. San Diego Chargers, Eben Britton, OT (Arizona)
17. New York Jets, Tyson Jackson, DE (LSU)
18. Chicago Bears, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (Maryland)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Percy Harvin, WR  (Florida)
20. Detroit Lions, Aaron Maybin, DE (Penn State)
21. Philadelphia Eagles, Vontae Davis, CB (Illinois)
22. Minnesota Vikings, Mark Sanchez, QB (Southern California)

The New England Patriots are on the clock.

(If you enjoyed this article, please consider leaving a comment below. Also, please subscribe to our blog by pressing the orange button below. Thanks.)

Subscribe in a reader

March 19, 2009
By Donald Starver

Several readers have written to me and asked when I’ll be publishing my 2009 NFL mock draft.  The answer is, “never”.

It’s not that I don’t enjoy mock drafts.  I do.  In fact, I agreed to participate in a bloggers’ mock draft, and I’ve been posting the results of that mock draft here on this website.

The problem that I have with mock drafts is that most fans don’t understand how useless they really are.  I don’t want to add to their confusion by posting my own useless mock draft.

The fundamental fallacy of mock drafts is that they pretend to be something that they are not.  Most mock drafts pretend to have a good handle on how the upcoming NFL draft is going to play out.  Draft pundits like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay spend countless hours touting their predictions as though they have access to some crystal ball that the rest of us aren’t privy to.  Even more worrisome, some of them even make you pay money to get access to their “forecasts”.  Why would I pay money for something that, by definition, is bound to be inaccurate?

This same flawed thinking makes its way to message boards and fan forums all over the internet.  Fans argue and debate about what order players will be selected in.  Some fans become so adamant about their opinion that terms like “moron”, “idiot”, and “#$*@$%!!” are used to describe anyone who disagrees with them.  If only they understood how silly this is.  But of course, the irony is lost on them.

Mathematically speaking, arguing about mock drafts is illogical.  In fact, it’s downright stupid.

If you look at the number of possible permutations for just the first round of the NFL draft, you’ll quickly realize that predicting it correctly is extraordinarily unlikely.

One of my favorite football websites, Cold, Hard Football Facts, did an analysis of how some of the top draft “experts” did on their 2008 first round NFL mock drafts. They found that Mel Kiper Jr. only got 22.6% of his first round picks correct.  That means he got 77.4% wrong.  That’s right, 77.4%!!  I don’t know of any profession where you can be wrong 77% of the time and be considered an “expert”.  Heck, even the weatherman is more accurate than that.

Mel’s partner in crime, Todd McShay, also got 77% of his picks wrong.  That’s not an indictment of Mel or Todd.  Most mock drafts did even worse than that.  The know-it-all on your favorite message board probably got less than 15% of his picks right last year.  But of course he’ll never admit that.

I’ve even seen sites that do 7 round mock drafts.  The folly of this boggles the mind.  There are 224 picks in the standard 7 round NFL draft.  There were also 28 compensatory picks in 2008, taking the total number of players drafted to 252.  Accurately predicting the order of selection for 252 draft picks is a mathematical impossibility.   In fact, most 7 round mock drafts were 100% inaccurate on their picks beyond the 2nd round.  But statistically speaking, that result is to be expected.  Your time would be better spent trying to predict the next Powerball jackpot than trying to predict who your favorite team will select in the 7th round.

In my opinion, mock drafts fall into the same category as those psychic hotlines that were popular back in the 90′s.  They’re fun, but there is almost no chance that they will accurately predict the future, so they should come with a disclaimer that says “for entertainment purposes only”.

I don’t have a problem with discussing the draft.  Guessing who your favorite team will select can be lots of fun.   Should your team select an offensive player or a defensive player?  Will your team take the guy with superstar talent but off-field issues?  Will your team draft a franchise quarterback?  Will player X reach his potential?  These are all fun questions to discuss.

However, if you are on your favorite team message board, and some know-it-all calls you a “moron” for disagreeing with his “expert prognostication”, don’t engage him in name calling.  Instead, simply sit back and enjoy the irony of the situation.  After all, he has just proven which of you is really the  “moron”.

If we look at our local team, the Steelers, the point gets made pretty clearly.  Which mock draft predicted that the Steelers would select Rashard Mendenhall in the first round last year?  None.  Some did predict that the Steelers would take Lawrence Timmons the year before that, but that is only because rookie head coach Mike Tomlin announced who he wanted long before the draft.  He learned from his error, and won’t be making that mistake again.

Most mock drafts seem to think that the Steelers are going to take Alex Mack or Max Unger in the first round.  Perhaps they will, and perhaps they won’t.  If there’s one thing that I’ve learned about the Steelers, it’s that they seldom do what fans think they’re going to do.  Moreover, even though they don’t do what we expect them to do, the Steelers usually get it right.

Remember, evaluating talent is an inexact science.  Nobody knows how any given player is going to do at the next level.  Look at Oakland Raiders’ offensive lineman Robert Gallery.  In 2004, he was considered the only “sure thing” in the draft.  He was selected #2 overall, and some thought that he might be the #1 overall pick.  Gallery was selected ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Sean Taylor, DeAngelo Hall, Shawn Andrews, and Steven Jackson.  It just goes to show that there is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to the draft.

So go ahead and enjoy the mock drafts.  Continue to watch Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay.  Just remember, they’re for entertainment purposes only.

(If you enjoyed this article, please consider leaving a comment below. Also, please subscribe to our blog by pressing the orange button below. Thanks.)

Subscribe in a reader

Steelers Today has hooked up with 31 other NFL bloggers from around the country to do a bloggers’ mock draft. All 32 NFL teams are represented in the mock draft.

The mock draft is sponsored by Cleveland Browns blog No Logo Needed. For more details on the bloggers’ mock draft, click here.

With the twentieth pick of the 2009 NFL Draft the Philadelphia Eagles blog Iggles Blog selects…

Say what now?  A cornerback?  And one with character issues to boot?

Yes.  Yes, indeed.

Davis is the perfect Andy Reid draft choice:

1. He plays a high-value position in which first-round athleticism makes a huge difference.
2. No one sees the pick coming.
3. On its face, the pick is completely inexplicable.

But what about offensive line (you ask).  Or tight end?  Or running back?  Or all the other places the Eagles have actual needs?  Not cornerback, where we have a Pro Bowler, a solid starter, a very wealthy nickel man and a “first-round talent” prospect coming off a knee injury.

Let me explain.  First of all, as a cornerback, Davis is very, very good.  He’s also — for a cornerback — very, very big.  The brother of Vernon Davis is a physical freak.  You don’t find many 6-0, 200-pound guys who can turn and run with most wide receivers.  Can I get a “Plaxico Burress” anyone?

Secondly, everyone remembers the story of how the Eagles drafted Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown even though they already had Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor locked in as starters.  What most people don’t realize is that Sheldon Brown is now older than Taylor was when his replacement was drafted (and only one year younger that Vincent was at the same time.)

Cornerbacks don’t age well.  You can never have enough guys around to keep pushing them.

Now, with that said, the other intriguing thing about Davis is that he may actually project to FS at the next level.  He’s a born hitter, loves contact, and his “tremendous athleticism” at the cornerback position would translate to “Hall of Fame caliber athleticism” at the safety position.

New SS Sean Jones is a one-year stopgap, we still don’t know for sure what we have in Quintin Demps, and Quintin Mikell turns 29 later this year.  Another safety prospect would not be a bad thing to have around.

The final interesting note is that Davis’ Pro Day is today at Illinois.  Depending on the numbers he puts up then, the idea that he’ll be around at #20 is quite possibly a pipe dream.  But I’ll take him for now.

The draft results so far are shown below. Click on the individual pick to read each blogger’s rationale for his selection.

1. Detroit Lions: Mathew Stafford, QB (Georgia)
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT (Virginia)
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB (Wake Forest)
4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR (Texas Tech)
5. Cleveland Browns: Rey Maualuga, LB (Southern California)
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Smith, OT (Baylor)
7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR (Missouri)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT (Boston College)
9. Green Bay Packers, Brian Orakpo, DE (Texas)
10. San Francisco 49ers, Everette Brown, OLB (Florida State)
11. Buffalo Bills, Clay Matthews, OLB (Southern California)
12. Denver Broncos, Malcolm Jenkins, CB (Ohio State)
13. Washington Redskins, Andre Smith, OT (Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints, Brian Cushing, OLB (Southern California)
15. Houston Texans, Michael Oher, OT (Ole Miss)
16. San Diego Chargers, Eben Britton, OT (Arizona)
17. New York Jets, Tyson Jackson, DE (LSU)
18. Chicago Bears, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (Maryland)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Percy Harvin, WR  (Florida)
20. Detroit Lions, Aaron Maybin, DE (Penn State)
21. Philadelphia Eagles, Vontae Davis, CB (Illinois)

The Minnesota Vikings are on the clock.

(If you enjoyed this article, please consider leaving a comment below. Also, please subscribe to our blog by pressing the orange button below. Thanks.)

Subscribe in a reader

Steelers Today has hooked up with 31 other NFL bloggers from around the country to do a bloggers’ mock draft. All 32 NFL teams are represented in the mock draft.

The mock draft is sponsored by Cleveland Browns blog No Logo Needed. For more details on the bloggers’ mock draft, click here.

With the twentieth pick of the 2009 NFL Draft the Detroit Lions blog The Wayne Fontes Experience selects…

Though offensive tackle could be addressed at the 20 spot, at this point of the draft, the Lions absolutely have to draft for the defensive side of the ball (Plus there has been a run on OT’s in this mock). To be blunt, they could draft a player at 20 who plays ANY defensive position, and it would fill a Detroit need. The Lions’ defense was truly that bad in 2008. Legendarily, shockingly, regime killing bad.

Middle linebacker is a HUGE need, so tOSU’s James Laurientus was heavily considered with this pick. But he could very likely be available with the first pick of the 2nd round, as Laurientus has been dropping on draft boards and mock drafts all across the NFL. I was hoping USC LB Rey Maualuga would be available at 20, but he surprisingly went in the top 5 of this mock.

The Lions also have big time needs on the defensive line, and I was even more surprised to see Aaron Maybin, the DE out of Penn State, still on the board.  The Lions desperately need a pass rush, and Maybin is a pure speed rusher, though a bit raw. But he scouts out as a breakout type talent, the best player off the snap in this draft and the best pass rusher available, period.

The Lions have lacked a big time pass rushing end for over 2 decades (Finding an end “Who could block out the sun” was Wayne Fontes’ obsession, his white whale, so to speak). The last Lions defensive end to honestly put fear in the the eyes of opposition quarterbacks was Al “Bubba” Baker back in the early-mid 80′s. Yes, it’s been that long…

Maybin is the sort of talent the Lions can build around.  He could be head coach Jim Schwartz’s Detroit version of “The Freak”, Javon Kearse, who terrorized offenses from the defensive end position during Schwartz’s first 3 seasons as defensive coordinator (2001-03) in Tennessee. Maybin would also bookend nicely with one of the Lions’ few legitimate NFL defenders, end Dewayne White. Add Cliff Averil to the mix, who showed signs of being a solid contributor in his rookie season with 5 sacks, and the Lions would actually have a defensive position which could be considered a strength.

Maybin may have the biggest upside (I know, it’s a cliche, but true in his case) of any defensive player in this draft. My only concern is size, as Maybin is on the smallish side, and Schwartz is on record saying he wants a bigger and stronger defense under his watch.  But Maybin’s a born pass rusher, and is the sort of player who could be a true impact defender in a few years. Impact players have been far and few between in Detroit for quite some time.

The Lions would be THRILLED if a player with Maybin’s natural talent is available with the 20th pick.

The draft results so far are shown below. Click on the individual pick to read each blogger’s rationale for his selection.

1. Detroit Lions: Mathew Stafford, QB (Georgia)
2. St. Louis Rams: Eugene Monroe, OT (Virginia)
3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, LB (Wake Forest)
4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR (Texas Tech)
5. Cleveland Browns: Rey Maualuga, LB (Southern California)
6. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Smith, OT (Baylor)
7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR (Missouri)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: B.J. Raji, DT (Boston College)
9. Green Bay Packers, Brian Orakpo, DE (Texas)
10. San Francisco 49ers, Everette Brown, OLB (Florida State)
11. Buffalo Bills, Clay Matthews, OLB (Southern California)
12. Denver Broncos, Malcolm Jenkins, CB (Ohio State)
13. Washington Redskins, Andre Smith, OT (Alabama)
14. New Orleans Saints, Brian Cushing, OLB (Southern California)
15. Houston Texans, Michael Oher, OT (Ole Miss)
16. San Diego Chargers, Eben Britton, OT (Arizona)
17. New York Jets, Tyson Jackson, DE (LSU)
18. Chicago Bears, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (Maryland)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Percy Harvin, WR  (Florida)
20. Detroit Lions, Aaron Maybin, DE (Penn State)

The Philadelphia Eagles are on the clock.

(If you enjoyed this article, please consider leaving a comment below. Also, please subscribe to our blog by pressing the orange button below. Thanks.)

Subscribe in a reader