Why you should ignore the Combine
The NFL Scouting Combine has officially begun. It runs from February 24 – March 1, 2011. And flocks of football fans will tune in to watch it on NFL Network.
It still amazes me that the NFL has been able to package the Combine into a made-for-TV event. Moreover, I’m amazed that it actually draws a fairly significant audience. And that audience of rabid fans discusses the day’s events on message boards all over the internet.
But regardless of how many people watch the NFL Scouting Combine, I still feel obligated to post a message that has become an annual ritual for me. Each year, I warn Steelers Today readers to ignore the NFL Scouting Combine. Don’t watch it. Don’t read about it. Don’t discuss it. Ignore it!
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the NFL Scouting Combine, it is an annual event wherein the NFL brings potential draft picks to Indianapolis so that NFL coaches and scouts can examine them like livestock, and then watch them do things that have absolutely nothing to do with football.
The athletes who come to the Combine are all required to strip down to their undershorts, and then they are weighed, measured, and viewed by the scouts and coaches. Like I said earlier, it resembles inspecting livestock.
Once they’re inspected, the cattle….errrrr, I mean “athletes”, are asked to do a number of physical tests. They lift weights, jump, and run. Their scores on all of the physical tests are recorded and compared.
While it is nice to know that an offensive lineman has a 22 inch vertical leap, I’ve never quite understood why that fact was particularly relevant. Moreover, I’ve never understood why teams place so much importance on how many reps a wide receiver can do on the bench press. Similarly, I find no value in the fact that a defensive tackle runs the 40 in 5.8 seconds.
The problem that I have with the combine is that they measure things that have little to do with football. When was the last time you’ve seen a player bench press during a game? How often have you seen an offensive lineman suddenly do a standing vertical jump to determine the outcome of a game? Even the 40 yard dash is pretty silly. Go back and check the stats of any team in the NFL to see how many plays they executed during the ENTIRE SEASON that were for 40 yards. I can assure you that it won’t be many. Most NFL plays go for 5 yards or less. So why don’t they time players in the 5 yard dash? Or better yet, the 2 yard dash? At least that would resemble a real NFL play.
As obvious as all of this sounds, every year we see NFL teams make ridiculous mistakes based on Combine results. They get mesmerized by the “workout wonders”. Does anybody remember Darius Heyward-Bey? How about Ted Ginn, Jr.? Or Matt Jones? Or Vernon Gholston? Or Jarron Gilbert? All of them performed amazingly well at the NFL Combine. But none of them proved to be particularly effective in the NFL.
Rather than worrying about how many times a player can bench press 225 lbs., maybe teams ought to be more concerned about how the player looks on tape. How did he perform in actual games? Can he catch the ball? Does he make solid tackles? Those are the things that will dictate his success of failure in the NFL, not his time in a cone drill.
Had scouts done that, they would have seen that Darius Heyward-Bey wasn’t a particularly effective receiver when he played at Maryland, despite his speed. They would have seen that Jarron Gilbert struggled against inferior competition, despite that amazing YouTube video of him jumping out of a swimming pool. Everything they need to know is on tape. It won’t be found in the 40 yard dash.
So save yourself a lot of time this weekend. Rather than tuning in to the NFL Scouting Combine, read a good book. Or perhaps you can go see a movie. Or take the wife to dinner at her favorite restaurant. But whatever you do, DO NOT watch the Combine……unless you want to see a good comedy.
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I both agree and disagree.
First, I agree because some people put waaay too much stock into the combine, especially 40 times. Mike Mayock put it best: Tape doesn’t lie. If you see something at the combine or senior bowl that you did not see on tape, you go back and check the tape again. Vernon Gholston destroyed the combine, but on film he had a tendency to disappear from games, despite his elite athleticism. Guess which had more truth: his tape or combine drills?
However I disagree in this way: The combine is essentially the NFL equivalent of a job interview. A player showing up out of shape, overweight, and unprepared for the combine (Hello, Andre Smith!) is equal to a normal person showing up stoned or drunk to an interview. It just does not look good. They do have interviews for the combine as well, to gauge intelligence (ignore the wonderlic, unless it’s hilariously low: Hello, Akili Smith!).
The combine can be useful, and as a football junkie, I’ll get my fix any way I can. But you can’t use the combine alone to test a player’s ability. Yes, you read that correctly, Al Davis.
1Dan,
To be fair, I must say that I do think the Combine serves one important purpose. It allows teams to look a kid in the eye and see what he’s like personally. For example, is he an arrogant jerk, or is he respectful. Those interpersonal things can only be determined face-to-face. You can’t get them on film.
But like you, I will actually be watching the Combine. Not because I think it has any value whatsoever. Frankly, I don’t. But as you stated, as an NFL junkie, I’ll take my fix anyplace I can get it. And this weekend, the only place to get it is by watching the Combine.
2You’ve all forgotten one important thing about the combine – it allows a GM to ask a player if his mother is a hooker!
3Like Dan I agree and disagree. You make an important (and correct) point that you shouldn’t put too much importance on the combine as many of the tests have limited to no application to real football. Even the interviews are less useful as many athletes are now coached on how to respond.
The combine does offer the chance to compare athletes against each other using the same metrics but only a few are applicable for each position. The 40yd dash may be useful to compare the closing speed of CB’s or the ability of a WR to run the go route but those are only a small part of a CB’s or WR’s game.
Where the combine is important is the following:
41) It allows teams to have good medical evaluations.
2) It allows fans (who don’t follow college) to start identifying potential draftees
@Steel Jim – LOL! Yeah, I had forgotten that a team actually did that.
@John – Good point about the medical examinations. But those aren’t televised. So they’re not a reason to watch the livestock show on NFL Network.
5Your looking at the events wrong, the 40 yard dash is one of the most important events for defensive lineman. They don’t care about the overall time, but it’s a great way to see how fast a lineman can explode out of their stance. It’s their 10 yard time that matters.
6Its only a tool. If some GMs want to make a guy a first rounder based on combine stats alone then shame on them.
At least we know Colbert and Tomlin look a whole lot closer than that.
THough I do wonder if Limas Sweed dropped a lot of passes when he was at the combine.
7Fraser,
I’ve got to disagree with you. 10 yard times are meaningless. Your falling into the same trap as Al Davis.
I’ll bet if you go back and look at LaMarr Woodley’s time, it was terrible. And James Harrison was undrafted, so we know he didn’t blow anyone away at the combine.
If a player has consistently outhustled, outfought, and outplayed his opponent, then that’s what I want to know. I don’t care how fast he can run 10 yards unobstructed. You see, he won’t be unobstructed in the NFL. There will be a huge left tackle standing in front of him who is determined to stop him. How well does he handle that?
8Jeff,
9I know it’s off topic, but Limas has got to feel terrible. He watched Mike Wallace come in behind him and become a star. Now Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown did the same thing. Limas has probably seen his last days as a Steeler. But I hear that he did a lot of reps in the bench press at the Combine, so maybe Oakland or Buffalo will pick him up. They always seem to be impressed by those things.
True about Limas but knowing he is there and has a chance of being a tall receiver in some 4 or 5 wide sets may allow the Steelers to ignore the position entirely this draft and give him one last look.
If I thought it would help I’d go to Indy and parade around with a sign that said
10“STEELERS “WE WANT A CORNER”
I enjoy watching some of the combine just to make myself a smarter football fan. I watch some college football, but not enough to know all of these players and positions. Its like anything else on TV, you do not have to watch it if you are not interested.
11Mark,
I understand. Like I said, I watch it simply because I need a football fix.
Frankly, I see no problem with watching it to learn the names of players. But don’t make any judgments of them based on things you see them do at the Combine. That’s when it becomes problematic.
Personally, I watch more college football than the law should allow. So I already know who I think is draft-worthy and who isn’t. But I understand that most people don’t have the time or desire to watch that much college football.
12