Steelers vs. Patriots Preview
This Sunday, the Steelers will begin the most difficult 2-game stretch of the 2011 season. They face the New England Patriots this weekend, and then they’ll face the Baltimore Ravens the following week. The Steelers will host both games at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.
Both the Patriots (5-1) and the Ravens (4-2) are in the top 10 in most NFL power rankings. The Steelers are also in the top 10 in those rankings. In fact, these 3 teams are the top 3 teams in the AFC in most rankings. So the next two games will say a lot about AFC supremacy.
The problems with facing the Patriots is that they always seem to have the Steelers’ number. The Patriots have won 5 of their last 6 games in Pittsburgh (including 2 AFC Championship games).
Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady is 6-1 against the Steelers during his career, and he always poses a difficult challenge for the Steelers.
The problem with facing Brady is that he violates one of the Steelers’ defensive philosophies. The Steelers believe in stopping the run to force their opponent to become one-dimensional. They believe that if they can force the opponent to pass the ball, they have a high probability of causing turnovers and winning the game.
However, Tom Brady and the Patriots seem to embrace that challenge. They seldom run against the Steelers, and are content to throw on just about every play. They use the short passing game in place of their running game, and challenge the Steelers to stop them. And Brady almost never throws an interception.
The Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in overall and passing offense, with averages of 474.5 yards and 350.5, respectively. Brady leads the AFC in passing, and wide receiver Wes Welker leads the NFL in receptions.
Welker is always challenging, but the bigger challenge for the Steelers will likely be Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is ranked 23rd in the NFL in receiving yards, and he already has 5 touchdowns. That’s more TD catches than Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, A.J. Green, Jason Whitten, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, or Vincent Jackson. Moreover, Gronkowski caught 3 TD passes the last time the Steelers faced the Patriots.
Fortunately for the Steelers, the Patriots defense is ranked 32nd in the NFL against the pass. That’s dead last. They’re allowing their opponents to pass for 322 yards per game.
If the Steelers are smart, they’ll take a page from the Patriots’ playbook, and challenge the Pats to stop their passing game. Frankly, I don’t believe that the Patriots’ defensive backs have the speed to stay with Steelers’ receivers Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders.
Steelers fans don’t usually expect to see the Steelers offense engage in high scoring shootouts. But in this game, that may be exactly the formula that’s needed to win. And frankly, I think it’s the type of game that offensive coordinator Bruce Arians dreams about.
Arians loves the passing game. Loves, loves, loves! In fact, if he could never call a running play, I think he’d do that.
If Arians is allowed to unleash his sprinters so Ben Roethlisberger can launch long bombs, Arians will likely die of happiness. Moreover, the Steelers will likely win the game.
Launch long bombs like Ben did vs the Jags? No, no. no. They need to lure them in with quick timing rhythm passes, then go long. The Steelers have the speed at WR to make those short passes huge. On offense, the Steelers need to play smart and not turn the ball over to beat the Pats at their own game. It won’t be easy, because you know Brady will abuse William Gay, Mcfadden and Lewis. Ben can easily burn the Pats secondary, as long as he plays smart and the play calling is smart. The Steelers can easily win this on paper. It all comes down to execution.
Oh, and stop the run. The Steelers are getting better at that, but still.
1Yeah, don’t forget that the Pat’s were able to run on the Steelers last year. This year, they’re better at the run with the addition of a veteran OG out of KC, and the Steelers are weaker. So we won’t be able to force them to throw anyway.
2Unless, Lebeau does something really wizardly, or Troy has one of the best games of his career, this will probably come down to a shootout.
Speaking of wizardly defensive schemes. I would love to see what would happen if Lebeau decided to put Heath Miller or David Johnson on Wes Welker on 3rd and long situations where they know we’re blitzing. You just tell ‘em “pretend he’s the smallest LB you’ve ever seen and we’re running to your side.”
Dan,
I agree that the Steelers are going to have to use the short passing game to keep the Pats’ secondary honest before launching the long bomb. But I hope to see quite a few long bombs.
Devin McCourty has been the Patriots’ version of William Gay this year. He’s been targeted more than any cornerback in the NFL. And he usually gets beat. I can’t wait to see him try to stay with Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown.
I just hope that Ben is accurate on Sunday. If he can hit his receivers in stride (rather than under-throwing the long passes), it will be a long day for New England.
3Matt,
I’m hoping that the Steelers can run on the Pats. Have you noticed that the Steelers running game has been like a box of chocolates; you never know what you’re gonna get.
I think the Steelers should have success stopping the Pats running game. Casey Hampton will be back, and that should help.
4Although it is true with all defenses, it seems especially true for us: The longer we are on the field, the worse we get. For that reason, a shoot out does not favor us. I know BA and Ben BELIEVE that we can win a shootout and may want to PROVE it (that REALLY scares me) but it will be our downfall. Our winning approach is made up of solid execution including a balanced attack; keeping Brady on the sidelines as much as possible; attacking him & hitting him when he is on the field; creating turnovers (only 3 this year! C/mon man!) and not turning the ball over ourselves. Sounds basic but we have all seen it work hundreds of times for the Black n Gold
5John#21,
I agree with you in principle. But I’m not sure if I do in real life.
In principle, hitting Brady and creating turnovers sounds like a great idea. In real life, the Steelers rarely ever get a hand on Brady. And they get him to turn the ball over even less.
I do agree that trying to beat the Pats in a shootout may be a losing formula. They’re used to scoring 30+ points per game. The Steelers aren’t. So it may be difficult to beat the Pats at their own game.
I certainly wish James Harrison was playing in this game. Lawrence Timmons has generated very little (no?) pressure from the right side. That’s going to work to Brady’s advantage.
Sunday can’t get here fast enough. I can’t stop thinking about this game.
6We have looked so ‘UN-Steeler’ like in our losses to NE. If we are going to win it is not going to come by sitting back and depending on our coverage guys to make plays. I keep reading, we have to get pressure up the middle; we have to jam their receivers, etc. All true, the key is to disrupt Brady’s rythmn. Again, easier said than done. Looking at the Buffalo game & last year’s Browns’ game, they got after Brady and they hit people hard. That is the Steeler formula! None of this #43 standing 20 yds downfield! We have to mix it up in an effort to get pressure on him AND we have to gang tackle and hit them hard. If we lose, let’s at least be certain that they are limping off the field and feel exhausted. I want to see barely controlled aggression in the Steelers.
7John#21,
I believe you have contradicted yourself. You say that in order for the Steelers to win, they need to keep their defense off the field, and keep Brady on the sidelines. Just exactly how does that work? You can’t have your cake, and eat it too.
I’ve been dreading this game all season. I expect the same results as usual. Brady will pick apart our beloved Steelers defense. God I hate that guy!!!
8John#21,
9Your comment reminded me of Ryan Clark’s devastating hit on Wes Welker a few years ago. I hope we see some of that today.