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If I were Steelers’ GM Kevin Colbert (Part 3)

February 12, 2009 By: Admin Category: Draft/Free Agency, Players

February 11, 2009
By Donald Starver

Note: This is the third installment in a three-part series.  If you haven’t already read the first part, please click here.  If you haven’t read the second part, please click here.

The toughest decisions that Kevin Colbert will make this offseason will have nothing to do with this year’s free agents.  Instead, the hardest decisions that he will have to make will pertain to the players that will be free agents next year.

The Steelers have quite a few key players who have only one year remaining on their contracts.  So next year, all of them will be free to test the open market (and potentially leave) unless the Steelers lock them up now by extending their contracts.  This has typically been how the Steelers have managed situations with players that they want to keep.  However, I can’t ever remember this many key players’ contracts ending at the same time.

The players with one year remaining on their contracts include James Harrison, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Ryan Clark, Deshea Townsend, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Justin Hartwig, and Jeff Reed.  Every one of those players was a key contributor to the Steelers’ Super Bowl season.  In an ideal world, the Steelers would probably want to keep every one of them.  But this is not an ideal world.  This is the world of free agency, where players’ are basically available to the highest bidder.

The first priority will be two-time Steelers MVP, and NFL Defensive Player of the Year, James Harrison.  Harrison has proven himself to be a more-than-capable replacement for Joey Porter.  We all thought that Harrison would be good, but nobody expected him to be this good.

Silverback has been one of the best values in the NFL over the past 2 years.  He earned $1.1 million in 2007, and $1.2 million in 2008.  Compare that to the $6.8 million that the Steelers paid Max Starks.

Harrison’s agent knows that if his client is ever going to get a big payday, this is the time to do it.  Harrison will be 31 years old when next season begins, so this will be his last big contract.  Several factors will be working against the Steelers.  Firstly, Harrison will probably feel that the Steelers need to repay him for working so cheaply for the past two years.  Afterall, how many NFL teams’ MVP makes just over $1 million per year?  Oh yeah, and he made the Pro Bowl both of those years.  James Harrison has been a steal, and the Steelers know it.

Harrison’s predecessor, Joey Porter, will also play a role his negotiation with the Steelers.  Harrison knows that Porter got a 5 year, $32 million dollar deal with $12 million guaranteed.  The first defensive player drafted in last year’s draft, Chris Long, got a 6 year, $56.5 million dollar deal with $29 million guaranteed, and he had never even played a down in the NFL, much less won the DPOY award.

Lastly, this year’s defensive free agents Terrell Suggs, DeMarcus Ware, and Albert Haynesworth will play a key role in setting the market price for top defensive talent.  I’m sure the Steelers wish those guys weren’t hitting the free market at the same time that they are trying to extend Harrison.

Last year, the Vikings gave free agent defensive end Jared Allen a six year deal at $12.2 million per year, with $32 million guaranteed.  Harrison is not a defensive end, but I’m sure his agent will be quoting those numbers early and often.

Suffice it to say that James Harrison is going to feel like a Powerball winner when this thing is done.  I won’t attempt to guess what the figures on Harrison’s contract will be, but I know that I wouldn’t want to be Kevin Colbert right now.

Obviously, every penny that the Steelers spend on James Harrison is a penny that they can’t spend on their other players that need to be extended.

In my opinion, the next guy the Steelers should focus on is Hines Ward.  Sure, Hines will be 51 at the beginning of next season (actually he’ll be 33).  But he still has some good years left in him.  Hines is definitely one of the leaders in the Steelers clubhouse.  This year was his best season since 2003.  He had 81 receptions and over 1,000 yards.  But Hines isn’t just about statistics.  Possibly more than any other player, Hines Ward embodies the Steelers toughness.  Hines Ward was born to be a Steeler.

Despite his advancing age, Ward is not likely to see his skills decline like some players do.  The reason for this is that Hines Ward has never relied on physical gifts to succeed in the NFL.  Hines Ward is short, he’s slow, and he can’t jump.  But he compensates for that by being fearless, running great routes, and having hands like a black hole (nothing ever escapes them).  These are traits that don’t diminish with time.

The Steelers will probably offer Ward an opportunity to end his career with the team if he takes a reduced salary.  They may have to give him a year or two more on his contract than they’d like to, but I think the Steelers can get Ward to agree to a deal that will keep him in Pittsburgh until he retires.

Next up is Heath Miller.  In my opinion, Heath Miller is one of the best (and most under-utilized) tight ends in the NFL.  After Hines Ward, Miller is Big Ben’s most reliable target.  In the red zone, he may be at the top of that list.  The Steelers have to keep him.

Everyone knows that Bruce Arians is obsessed with tight ends.  If he could run an 11 tight end offense, I think he’d do it.  Heath Miller is Arians’ best tight end.  So Miller is probably assured of getting his contract extended.

In my opinion, the first salary cap casualty among this list will be Casey Hampton.  “Big Snack” just isn’t the dominant player that he once was.    He’s only 31 years old, but Hampton seems to be aging in dog years.

Did anyone notice any drop off in production when Chris Hoke came into the game for Hampton this year?  Neither did I.  Sorry Hamp, but you won’t be seeing another contract from the Steelers.

Brett Keisel presents a bit of a dilemma for the team.  He hasn’t played great, but he has played well enough that the Steelers can’t afford to lose him.  We just speculated that Casey Hampton will be leaving after his contract is over.  Fellow defensive lineman Aaron Smith is also probably playing out his final contract as well.  With that in mind, the Steelers probably need to maintain continuity by keeping the youngest member of their front 3, Brett Keisel.

To be clear, Keisel is not a kid himself.  He’s 30 years old.  But Hampton and Smith are older, so that will benefit Keisel.  We’ve seen what too many changes have done to the Steelers’ offensive line.  They can’t allow their defensive line to suffer a similar fate.  So Keisel may get extended by default.  Lucky guy.

I never realized just how important Ryan Clark was to the Steelers until he had spleen and gall bladder problems last year.  Anthony Smith started in place of Clark and proved Ryan Clark’s true value.  If that weren’t enough to cement a spot on the team for Clark, his hits on Wes Welker and Willis McGahee surely earned him an extension.  Pay the man, Mr. Colbert.  PLEASE pay the man.

Justin Hartwig was a big improvement over Sean Mahan (which wasn’t hard to do).  However, his play has not been stellar.  If the Steelers take center Max Unger from Oregon or center Alex Mack from California in the upcoming NFL draft, then Hartwig won’t even be starting next year.

Hartwig’s presence probably saved Ben Roethlisberger from getting an additional 5-10 sacks that he would have gotten had Sean Mahan still been the Steelers’ starting center.  For that, Big Ben will forever be grateful.  However, the Steelers have a history of having Pro Bowl caliber centers like Mike Webster, Dermonti Dawson, and Jeff Hartings.  Harwig just isn’t in that category, nor will he ever be.  Both Mack and Unger have the potential to be.

Even if they don’t take a center early in this year’s draft, I think it is doubtful that the Steelers will extend Justin Hartwig’s contract during the offseason.  It is much more probable that they will maintain Hartwig as the starter through next season, and then let him leave when his contract expires.

Deshea Townsend is already 33 years old.  He’ll be 34 when his current contract expires.  The Steelers have gotten some great years out of Townsend.  Townsend was never super fast, he’s not particularly tall, and he doesn’t hit like a freight train.  But he’s always gotten all that he could out of his abilities.  He has made up for his physical shortcomings by being a smart player who understands Dick LeBeau’s defense.  In fact, I’ve always viewed him as a player that the Steelers could convert to safety to extend his career a bit if they wanted to.  He is the type of smart, dependable defensive backfield player that Anthony Smith needs to become.  But despite this potential, the Steelers will not have a 35 year old defensive back on their team.  So this is Townsend’s last contract.  Thanks for your service over all of these years, Deshea.  Unfortunately, time catches up to all of us eventually.

Larry Foote is an interesting situation.  He is the least talented of the Steelers’ four starting linebackers.  Moreover, he has physical freak and former #1 draft pick Lawrence Timmons breathing down his neck for playing time.  Timmons got so much playing time this year that he may as well have been a starter.  He actually had more tackles and more sacks than Foote, despite not being a starter.

Foote has been a solid, but not spectacular starter for the Steelers.  He knows Dick LeBeau’s defense.  Moreover, he will only be 29 years old when his contract expires.  That’s younger than all of the players that we’ve just discussed are RIGHT NOW except for Heath Miller.  So age is not really a problem for Foote.  His problem is Timmons.

Foote will not be able to hold off Timmons next year.  That’s for sure.  But he could still be a very valuable backup player.  If the Steelers could keep him at a reasonable price, they would probably be wise to do so.  Foote is not important enough to extend this offseason.  So you probably won’t be hearing his name in any press releases in the coming months.  Nevertheless, if Foote wants to remain a Steeler (at a reduced price, of course) when his contract ends, I think that is something that the Steelers should consider.

Lastly, we have Jeff Reed.  Reed is an interesting character.  He is probably the Steelers’ player who is most likely to get in a bar fight, get an under-aged girl pregnant, or get arrested for a DUI.  Reed is a wild and crazy guy.  But he’s OUR wild and crazy guy.  More importantly, he’s one of the best kickers in the NFL.  How many other kickers could be as successful playing in muddy, windy Heinz Field?  Not many.

As strange as this may sound, Reed may be one of the most important players for the Steelers to keep.  Give this guy an extension before he discovers that they have much better bars in Miami.

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Super Bowl XLIII: Cardinals vs. Steelers Key Matchups

January 29, 2009 By: Admin Category: Pre-Game Analyses

January 29, 2009
By Donald Starver

We are (finally) getting closer to the big game.  Time seems to go in slow motion in the two weeks between the AFC/NFC Championship games and the Super Bowl.  I could swear that the Steelers-Ravens AFC Championship game happened about a month ago.

With only 3 days remaining until kickoff, it’s time to look at the key matchups that will probably determine the outcome of the Super Bowl.  However, before reading this, you may want to check out our Super Bowl Preview.  In that article, we break down the Steelers-Cardinal’s meeting from last season (that the Cardinals won 21-14), and we outline why this year’s meeting will be different.

So, without further ado, here are this week’s key matchups:

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Steelers CB Ike Taylor
Ike usually lines up on the opposite side of the field than where Fitzgerald normally does.  However, whenever the Steelers play a team with a world-class wide receiver (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, etc.), they typically have Ike Taylor shadow him, regardless of where he lines up.  The Steelers have a tremendous amount of confidence in Ike Taylor and his abilities.  Ike has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL for several years, and he still doesn’t get the credit that he deserves.

Everyone has been anointing Larry Fitzgerald as the greatest receiver in the universe lately, and admittedly, he has been phenomenal during the playoffs.  However, Ike Taylor is going to pose a different challenge than Larry has faced recently.   Most cornerbacks in the NFL tend to be small and fast.  Ike Taylor is BIG and fast.  While Larry Fitzgerald is 6’3″, Taylor is 6’2″, and will be able to look Fitzgerald directly in the eyes.  Moreover, Taylor is faster than Fitzgerald.  Much faster.  Fitzgerald has been praised for his amazing leaping ability.  Throughout the playoffs, he has consistently jumped higher than his defenders and come down with the ball.  Leapin’ Larry’s 38 inch vertical is indeed impressive.  Unfortunately (for Larry), Ike Taylor’s measured vertical is 40 inches.  So Fitzgerald will be going against a corner who is just as big as he is, but who can run faster and jump higher.

I know everyone has already crowned Larry Fitzgerald as the king of this Super Bowl, but I’m going to disagree with the crowd.  Ike Taylor is going to show the rest of the world what Steelers’ fans already know.  He won’t be able to shut Fitzgerald down completely, nobody can do that.  But he won’t get abused by him either.  Advantage: Neither.

Steelers center Justin Hartwig vs. Cardinals’ tackle Darnell Dockett
As we wrote in our Super Bowl Preview, the Cardinals’ win over the Steelers last year was partially due to the dominant performance that Darnell Docket had over former Steelers’ center Sean Mahan.  Dockett owned Mahan.  He spent almost the entire game in the Steelers’ backfield.  He also recorded 2.5 sacks on Ben Roethlisberger.   That is probably one of the reasons why Justin Hartwig was brought in to replace Mahan.

Steelers guard Chris Kemoeatu will help Hartwig with Dockett.  Together, they should be able to keep the 2007 Pro Bowler from repeating the performance he had last year against the Steelers.  Advantage: Cardinals.

Steelers CB Bryant McFadden vs. Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin
There’s been so much talk about Larry Fitzgerald during these playoffs that everyone seems to be forgetting the Cardinals’ other wide receiver, Anquan Boldin.  You know, the other Cardinals wide receiver who will also be starting in the Pro Bowl.  Boldin hasn’t been utilized as much during the playoffs as he was during the regular season (and he let Cardinals’ offensive coordinator Todd Haley know that he doesn’t appreciate that fact).

Boldin will be matched up against his former Florida State teammate Bryant McFadden.  Having practiced against one another in college, these two should be pretty familiar with one another.  In his first year as the Steelers’ starting CB, McFadden quickly proved how effective he can be.  He rarely gets beat, and is very physical.  I’m going to give the nod in this matchup to Boldin only because he’s a Pro Bowl starter.  Advantage: Cardinals.

Steelers WR Santonio Holmes vs. Cardinals CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Everyone is talking about Larry Fitzgerald vs. Ike Taylor, but the more meaningful WR/CB battle may prove to be Santonio Holmes versus Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  Last year when these two teams met, Holmes torched the Cardinals for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He actually had more receiving yardage and touchdowns than Larry Fitzgerald had in that game.

Rogers-Cromartie is a young, brash, athletic rookie who has really helped the Cardinals’ secondary.  He is going to get even better as he matures.  But right now, he is not good enough to stop Santonio Holmes.  Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers TE Heath Miller vs. Cardinals S Adrian Wilson
This should prove to be another interesting matchup.  Heath Miller has probably the best hands on the Steelers team after Hines Ward.  He never drops the ball.  I mean NEVER.  Miller could (and should) be in the same category as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  Unfortunately, the Steelers seem to be allergic to throwing him the ball.  When it is thrown to him, Heath always catches the ball, and after the catch he seems to drag tacklers at least ten additional yards following their initial contact.

When Miller comes into the seam of the Cardinals defense, he will be met by safety Adrian Wilson.  Wilson is best known by casual fans for his YouTube video in which he jumps over a 66 inch high bar.  But beyond being a physical freak, Wilson is actually a very good safety.  He will be an NFC starter in this year’s Pro Bowl.

Both of these players are so good that it’s hard to pick one over the other.  Advantage: Neither.

Steelers NT Casey Hampton vs. Cardinals center Lyle Sendlein
This matchup features two University of Texas alums going at it.  However, it is a Longhorn reunion that Lyle Sendlein would probably rather have avoided.  Sendlein is a competent, but not spectacular center who is in his first year as a full-time starter.  “Big Snack” is going to eat the poor kid alive.  If I were Sendlein, I’d load up my pockets with Krispy Kreme donuts and offer one to Hampton before each snap.  That won’t stop Hampton from running him over, but it will at least give him a brief reprieve while Hampton chews.  Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers LB LaMarr Woodley versus RT Levi Brown
Levi Brown and LaMarr Woodley came out of college the same year, Brown from Penn State, and Woodley from Michigan.  As Big Ten Alum, they’re used to going up against one another.  Only this time, it is in the Super Bowl.  Brown was the more highly touted player coming out of college.  He was the 5th overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft, and some scouts thought he was as good or better than Browns’ tackle Joe Thomas.  Woodley slipped to the second round in that same draft.

Fast forward one year, and while Brown is a starting right tackle on a Super Bowl team, he has not been spectacular.  Woodley, on the other hand, has turned into a sack machine.  He is strong enough to bull rush his opponent, and fast enough to go around them.  In this battle of Penn State vs. Michigan, go with Michigan.   Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers LB James Harrison vs. Cardinals LT Michael Gandy
James Harrison is the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.  Gandy is a journeyman left tackle who is playing for his third NFL team.  That just about sums it up.  Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers CB DeShea Townsend vs. Cardinal WR Steve Breaston
The Cardinals usually have an advantage when they go to Steve Breaston.  Breaston is a #3 receiver who is good enough to start for most NFL teams.  However, the Cardinals have two Pro Bowl starting receivers, so Breaston is stuck at #3.  Most opponents don’t have a #3 cornerback who is good enough to stick with Breaston.  The Steelers do.  DeShea Townsend has been the Steelers’ starter since…….well, I’m not sure how long it’s been, but I’m pretty sure that he played alongside Mel Blount.  Townsend lost his starting position this year to Bryant McFadden only after Townsend got injured.  McFadden played so well that he never gave up the starting spot when Townsend returned.  But Townsend is still starter quality.  Just like Breaston.  Advantage:  Neither. 

Steelers safety Troy Polamalu vs. Everybody
Troy Polamalu isn’t your usual safety.  If he were an ordinary safety, we’d probably be doing a matchup of him versus a tight end or wide receiver, or even a running back coming out of the backfield.  But this is Troy Polamalu we’re talking about.  Troy’s position defies definition.  He’s called a “safety”, but he’s really a cornerbackertacklesafety.  He plays all over the place.  That’s why Troy will be matched up with just about everyone on the Cardinals’ team at some point during the game.  Regardless of who he goes up against, my money’s on Troy.    Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers LB Lawrence Timmons vs. Kurt Warner
It’s going to take a group effort to slow down Kurt Warner. However, I know that Lawrence Timmons is going to play a key role in whatever formula Dick LeBeau concocts. Timmons is insanely fast, and will probably replace Larry Foote quite often to help drop back and cover the seams in the defense that Warner is so good at finding. Timmons has the speed to cover a tight end (or even a WR) one-on-one. He can also close so quickly that any opening that Warner sees will quickly be shut. Timmons may well be one of the most valuable non-starters in the NFL. Advantage: Cardinals.

Cardinals’QB Kurt Warner vs. Steelers defense
This is going to be a good battle.  The NFL’s top pass defense against the NFL’s #2 passer (in yardage).  It is going to take the whole Steelers defense to stop Warner.  That’s because Warner reads defenses so well, and gets rid of the ball so fast.  Warner is a former league MVP, so he has to be respected.  But he’s not Superman.  Warner can be sacked.  He’s already been sacked 26 times this season.

To get to Warner, the Steelers are going to need a group effort.  James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are going to have to provide heavy pressure from the edges.  Simultaneosly, the cornerbacks are going to have to play the Cardinals’ receivers close to the line and make early contact to redirect them from their intended path.  Warner is a disciplined QB who throws timing patterns where the receiver is supposed to be.  If they get delayed, Warner’s pass will fall incomplete.  The Steelers’ linebackers may not get many sacks on Warner, but their pressure will account for incomplete passes that won’t show up in the box score.  Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
I’m sure my readers get tired of hearing me say this, but the Steelers’ fate rest on the shoulders of one man, Ben Roethlisberger.  As Roethlisberger goes, so go the Steelers.  When Big Ben is good, he’s very good.  But unfortunately the inverse is also true; when he’s bad, he’s very bad.

The Steelers don’t need Roethlisberger to play the role of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.  Roethlisberger isn’t that type of quarterback.  He doesn’t carve up defenses with his arm the way those two do.  Instead, we need him to play smart, disciplined football.  If Ben manages the offense and avoids turnovers, the Steelers should win this game pretty easily.

Unfortunately, I’ve been hearing Ben reflecting far too much on his poor play in his first Super Bowl.  Ben really seems to be bothered by that.  I hope he doesn’t try to do too much in order to prove that he can do better than he did last time.  If he does that, he’ll probably press and throw silly interceptions.

Trust me on this one, Ben.  Nobody will care about your stats if your team wins.  Stay within yourself and trust your teammates to make plays.  If you do that, you will go down in history as a great quarterback who won multiple Super Bowls, regardless of what the statistics say.   Advantage: We shall see.

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