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Steelers vs. Jaguars Statistical Analysis

October 07, 2008 By: Admin Category: Post-Game Reports

The Steelers defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday night 26-21. If you haven’t already read my post-game recap, click here.

In my post-game analysis, I take a deeper look at how the Steelers did during the game, and I analyze the game stats to better understand how the Steelers are doing.

Though the scoreboard made it appear that the game was a closely fought battle, that was not really the case. The Steelers dominated the Jaguars in most key aspects of the game. Let’s take a look at a few of them.

Offense

On offense, one of the key statistics that I like to look at is time of possession. This statistic helps to show how effectively an offense is driving against their opponent. For the game, the Steelers offense won the time of possession battle, controlling the ball for 33:23 versus 26:37 for the Jaguars. If we look closer, we will see that the Steelers really dominated the Jaguars in the first half. In the first half of the game, the Steelers held the ball for a full 21:15 versus only 8:45 for the Jaguars. That’s more than twice the possession time of Jacksonville. Anytime a team can control the time of possession, it highly likely that they will control the game.

In this instance, the scoreboard did not actually reflect the Steelers true level of dominance. The Jaguars intercepted Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers first offensive possession. Rashean Mathis ran back the interception for a touchdown, so the Jaguars got 7 points before their offense had ever even taken the field.

The Steelers controlled the ball and marched up the field so effectively against the Jaguars’ defense in the first quarter that the Jaguars offense never even stepped onto the field until there was only 5:18 left in the quarter.

For the game, the Steelers accumulated 28 first downs as compared to only 14 for the Jaguars. More importantly, they finished the game with almost twice the net yardage of the Jaguars. The Steelers had 415 net yards for the game, as opposed to only 213 net yards for the Jaguars. That’s an advantage of 202 yards.

Rushing

Despite playing without their first, second, and third string running backs, the Steelers were very effective in the rushing game. In his first start since joining the Steelers, Mewelde Moore rushed for an impressive 99 yards on 17 carries. That’s a good day for any back, regardless of whether they’re a starter or a substitute.

Mewelde Moore averaged 5.8 yards per carry during the game. For perspective, Willie Parker is averaging 4.0 yards per carry, Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 3.1, and Carey Davis is averaging 1.8. Do you think that perhaps Moore is trying to show the coaches that he deserves more playing time?

As a whole, the Steelers ended up with 129 net rushing yards versus only 38 net rushing yards for the Jaguars. Can you believe that? The vaunted Jaguars rushing attack was held to only 38 yards rushing. “Steeler killer” Fred Taylor rushed for a whopping 19 yards, while Maurice Jones Drew rushed for only 7 yards more than I did.

Passing

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recorded his first 300+ yard passing game of the season. In fact, it was his first game passing for over 200 yards this year.

In a game that was very uncharacteristic for the Steelers, the offense attempted 41 passing plays as opposed to only 26 running plays. It has long been believed that the Steelers are most effective when Big Ben only throws the ball 20-25 times per game. Personally, I’ve never subscribed to that theory, and I believe that Ben is one of the most under-utilized weapons in the NFL. In my opinion, you don’t pay a quarterback $100 million dollars and then hold him back from taking over games.

Roethlisberger had one of the most successful first halves of his career, passing for239 yards and 2 touchdowns by halftime.

Roethlisberger ended up with a passer rating of 100.6 for the game. That leaves him as the 9th ranked quarterback in the NFL, with a passer rating of 95.7. If you were to eliminate the terrible “sack-fest” that Roethlisberger suffered versus the Philadelphia Eagles in which his passer rating was a paltry 50.6, Roethlisberger would actually be the 2nd highest rated quarterback in the NFL, behind only Brett Favre. This is where Steelers fans expect Roethlisberger to be. While he has never been a prolific passer in terms of total passing yards, Roethlisberger has always been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league.

For the first time this season, Roethlisberger got everyone involved in the passing game. Hines Ward caught 7 passes for 90 yards, and 1 TD. Nate Washington caught 6 passes for 94 yards and 1 TD. Heath Miller caught 5 passes for 45 yards and 1 TD. Santonio Holmes had 4 for 65 yards, Mewelde Moore had 3 for 17 yards, and Gary Russell had 1 reception for -2 yards.

Hines Ward reached a milestone during the game by surpassing 9,000 receiving yards for his career.

9,000 career receiving yards!

9,000 career receiving yards!

Defense

Overall, the Steelers’ defense played an excellent game. As always, they are one of the top defensive units in the NFL. They are ranked #2 in overall defense (231.6 total yards/game). They are ranked #2 in rushing defense (66.8 yards/game), and 5th in passing defense (164.8 YPG).

The offense so dominated the time of possession (particularly in the 1st half), that they allowed the Steelers’ defense to be fresh for most of the game. In response, the defense turned in another Steeler-like performance.

While Jacksonville did score 21 points, one touchdown was scored by the Jacksonville defense. Another touchdown was given to the Jaguars as a gift from the referees. Ike Taylor was called for pass interference on a 39 yard pass into the endzone. If Taylor had not made contact with Matt Jones, there was little chance that Jones would have been able to actually catch the ball. Nevertheless, Taylor did make contact, and Jacksonville got the ball on the 1 yard line. On the next play, Maurice Jones-Drew ran it in for a 1 yard TD. If you take away the interception and the pass interference call, the Jaguars offense really only earned 1 touchdown against the Steelers.

Rushing Defense

38 net yards rushing. What more do we need to say? Total domination.

Passing Defense

David Garrard has been beating teams with his arm this season. The Steelers defense held him to only 200 yards passing on 18/32 attempts. Garrard finished the game with a passer rating of only 85.4.

Bryant McFadden had a tough time guarding Jaguars receiver Mike Walker (who?!!!). Walker caught 6 passes for 107 yards. Prior to this game, Walker had 6 receptions for 56 yards for the entire season. The Steelers can’t allow scrubs to have career games against them.

The Steelers’ linebackers continued their assault on quarterbacks. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are becoming the most feared LB tandem in the NFL. James Harrison, who is second in the NFL in sacks with 6.5 sacks, dropped David Garrard for 1 sack during the game. Not to be outdone, LaMarr Woodley, who is third in the NFL with 5.5 sacks, sacked Garrard twice.

The Steelers lead the NFL in sacks with 18 (tied with the Philadelphia Eagles). Harrison and Woodley alone have combined for more sacks than 22 NFL teams this season. Each of them has more sacks than such feared pass rushers as Mario Williams, Albert Haynesworth, Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, DeMarcus Ware, and Terrell Suggs.

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Steelers vs. Jaguars: Key Match-ups

October 04, 2008 By: Admin Category: Pre-Game Analyses

This week the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. The 8:15pm game will be a nationally televised on NBC.

Before reading this week’s key match-ups, please read my Steelers-Jaguars Preview here.

Ordinarily, I would focus on the key individual match-ups that are likely to determine the outcome of the game. However, there are extenuating circumstances that need to be considered before looking at individual match-ups.

Following their Monday night game against the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers limp into Jacksonville with a depleted line-up. Offensively, the Steelers will be without running backs Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, and Carey Davis. Their running game was left so short-handed after the Ravens game that the Steelers had to sign two new players (Najeh Davenport and Gary Davis) in order to field more than the lone running back (Mewelde Moore) that remained healthy.

While the Steelers will still attempt to run the ball like they usually do, they can’t be expected to have the same measure of success as usual when fielding their 4th string running back and two JV players.

On defense, the Steelers will be missing 2/3 of their defensive front line. Pro Bowl nose tackle Casey Hampton and defensive end Brett Kiesel are both out. This will have an effect (though not a devastating one) on the Steelers’ defense.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Jaguars running attack has been ineffectual. The Jags have failed to hold onto a 4th quarter lead in 3 consecutive games. David Garrard’s arm, and not Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew’s legs, have carried the Jaguars.

Because of those uncontrollable circumstances, these dynamics will probably control the game:

Steelers running backs vs. Jaguars defense

Mewelde Moore was once a starting running back for the Vikings. He is an experienced veteran in the NFL. However, he is no Willie Parker. For that matter, he’s no Carey Davis (which isn’t saying a lot). Admit it Steelers fans, you were surprised when he made that one long run against the Ravens. I was too.

If the Steelers have to rely on Najeh Davenport or Gary Russell for significant carries, it is going to be a very long day. Both players watched the Steelers’ game against the Ravens with a beer in one hand and a remote control in the other. While the Jaguars defense is not as intimidating as they once were, they should be able to handle the Steelers’ 4th string running back and two couch potatoes. Advantage: Jaguars.

Jaguars running backs vs. Steelers Defense

Despite having a difficult year so far, Fred Taylor is still a Steelers killer. He always comes to play against the black n gold. And unfortunately, they can never seem to stop him. They cannot stop him on the ground. They cannot stop him with a hound. They cannot stop his forward run. They cannot stop it with a gun. They cannot stop him here or there. They cannot stop him anywhere.

Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for less than 35 yards in three of the Jaguars 4 games this season. Can you say “scrub”, boys and girls?

The Steelers D is ranked #2 in the NFL. James Harrison is playing at a Pro Bowl level once again, and LaMarr Woodley is a budding superstar. Troy Polamalu is healthy again, and despite being a safety, he often lines up like a linebacker in Dick LeBeau’s defensive scheme. Even the loss of Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel has not slowed the Steelers D. Chris Hoke is an underrated backup, and the Steelers seldom miss a beat when he comes in for Casey Hampton. Despite my earlier Dr. Seuss rhyme, Advantage: Steelers.

Steelers Offensive Line vs. Jaguars rush

The Steelers offensive line hasn’t been able to stop anybody lately. Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 729 times in the last 4 games. In fact, I think the Philadelphia Eagles are STILL sending blitzers after Big Ben. If I were Roethlisberger, I’d be doing everything in my power to try to undo whatever it is that he did that has made his offensive line hate him. Perhaps he can fly them all to Hawaii with him when he goes to the Pro Bowl. Oh wait, he already tried that. Nevermind.

34th sack this quarter!

34th sack this quarter!

Fortunately for Roethlisberger, the Jaguars defense seems to be allergic to sacks. Last week against the mighty Texans (yes, that’s sarcasm you hear in my voice), Jacksonville had a whopping zero sacks. For once, I don’t fear for Big Ben’s life going into a game. Advantage: Neither.

Steelers Receivers vs. Jaguars Secondary

The Jaguars secondary is almost as banged up as the Steelers running backs. CB Rashean Mathis has 5 interceptions in his last 4 games against the Steelers. However, his is battling a shin injury suffered against the Texans, and he hasn’t practiced this week. Safety Reggie Nelson didn’t play last week after injuring his knee the previous week. His status is questionable. Scott Starks is out for the year with an ACL injury. Chad Nkang is on the PUP list. The Jaguars have been reduced to signing high school players to fill their defensive backfield (okay, so maybe I’m exaggerating a little bit. But not much). With Jacksonvilles DB’s in such bad shape, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should be able to get 9 touchdown apiece in this game (but we’ll settle for one apiece). Advantage: Steelers.

Now let’s take a look at a few individual match-ups that may have an impact on the game.

Ike Taylor vs. Matt Jones

Jones has emerged David Garrard’s favorite target. He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s finally learned how to catch the ball. Fortunately, Ike Taylor is also big and fast. Despite having hands of stone, Taylor usually does a good job of stopping some of the best receivers in the league. Advantage: Steelers.

James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley vs. David Garrard

Since the Jaguars haven’t been able to run the ball this year, they’ve been forced to rely on David Garrard’s arm to win games. Despite being slow as molasses, Garard also manages to make plays with his legs. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are going to have to keep pressure on Garrard to keep him from picking the Steelers’ defense apart. Advantage: Steelers.

Chris Kemoeatu vs. John Henderson

Kemo has shown that he basically sucks in pass protection. Fortunately, he is big (6’3″, 344 lbs.). He is going to need every bit of his size to battle man-mountain John Henderson. “Big John” is 6’7″, and weighs 335 lbs. Hopefully, Kemo and Henderson will be magnetically drawn together by their respective gravitational fields and essentially rendered motionless. If this doesn’t happen, Kemo is toast. Advantage: Jaguars.

The real X-factor in this game will probably prove to be the Jacksonville fans. The game is being played in Jacksonville, where their fans get up for the Steelers more than they do for any other opponent. It is going to be tough for the Steelers to go in there and get a win. It is definitely going to be a loud, hostile environment for the Black and gold.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

October 03, 2008 By: Admin Category: Pre-Game Analyses

This Sunday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. Both teams are coming off tough overtime victories last week. The Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens 23-20, while the Jaguars beat the Houston Texans 30-27.

This is a rivalry that dates back to when both teams played in the old AFC Central division (1995-2001). Jacksonville enjoys a 12-8 advantage in the all-time series against the Steelers, including winning the last 4. Three of those 4 wins were in Pittsburgh, and last season Jacksonville became the first team to beat Pittsburgh twice at home during the same season.

But that was then, and this is now. What fans will see on Sunday night is not your father’s Steelers-Jaguars game.

Typically, Steelers-Jaguars has meant two twin teams meeting in a battle to establish physical superiority. Both teams believed in running the ball, and playing physical defense. Those elements will primarily be missing from the game this Sunday.

On offense, the Steelers’ running backs are all banged up. Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, and Carey Davis are all out with injuries. The Steelers will be starting their 4th string running back, Mewelde Moore. Their other two running backs (Najeh Davenport and Gary Russell) weren’t even on the roster last week, and they may use their 3rd string tight end as a fullback. Uhhh, Ben Roethlisberger had better be prepared to throw the ball………Often.

Roethlisberger passes......again.

Roethlisberger passes......again.

The Jaguars’ running game isn’t looking much more intimidating than the Steelers’. Though they still boast running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jacksonville running game has struggled this year. If you disregard a 41-yard run on a fake punt play, the Jaguars have failed to break 100 yards rushing in 3 of their first 4 games. That is not typical Jaguars football.

On the defensive side of the ball, Jacksonville is no longer the physical juggernaut that “pimp slapped” the Steelers twice last year. DT Marcus Stroud, the Jaguars former defensive leader, now plays for the Buffalo Bills. John Henderson, the other mammoth defensive tackle for the Jaguars has not been as effective without Stroud by his side. Moreover, the left side of their line is starting to show their age. DLE Paul Spicer is 33 (going on 50), and DLT Rob Meier is 31. Defensive end Reggie Hayward hasn’t been the same since he tore his achilles two years ago. The Jaguars drafted defensive linemen with the first 2 picks in the 2008 draft, but neither Derrick Harvey nor Quentin Groves has had any impact.

The Jaguars vaunted “physical” defense has played like pussycats. They have only 5 sacks all year. By comparison, Steelers linebacker James Harrison already has 5.5 sacks all by himself. The Jaguars weren’t able to sack Houston quarterback Matt Schaub, even though Schaub had been sacked 8 times in the Texans’ prior two games. The lack of pressure from the kittycats….errr, I mean the Jaguars, was the primary reason that Schaub was able to pass for 307 yards and 3 touchdowns while converting 9 of 13 third down attempts.

The Jaguars linebackers aren’t playing much better. LB’s Mike Peterson and Darryl Smith are playing poorly, and Clint Ingram couldn’t stop a play action pass if you told him it was coming.

The Jaguar’s secondary is banged up. Starting safety Reggie Nelson didn’t play last week due to a bruised knee. Starting cornerback Rashean Mathis bruised his knee in the 2nd quarter against the Texans and had to leave the game. Nickel back Scott Starks was already out for the year with a knee injury. Even when healthy, Rashean Mathis and cornerback Drayton Florence spend so much time chasing opposing receivers that they probably feel like Swedish sprinters facing Usain Bolt.

Contrarily, the one thing that IS the same as it’s always been in this series is the Steelers’ defense. The Steelers defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL in points allowed, and 2nd in sacks (with 15). The Steelers linebackers are arguably the best in the NFL. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley make up an almost unstoppable tandem at outside linebacker. Even playing without Brett Keisel and Casey Hampton, the Steelers front line has stood their ground. Chris Hoke, Travis Kirschke, and Nick Eason have filled in very competently for the injured starters.

So to recap, a weak Steelers offense faces a weak Jaguars defense, and a weak Jaguars offense faces a strong Steelers defense. If the Steelers offensive line can protect Ben Roethlisberger (and that’s a BIG “if”), the Steelers should be able to win this one on the strength of their defense.

I predict the Steelers come out of this game with a 4-1 record, beating the Jaguars 24-14.

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